Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Ruiyun LiNils Chr Stenseth

Abstract

Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease with increasing geographic extent and human incidence. Although the climate-epidemic association and outbreak risks have been assessed using both statistical and mathematical models, local mosquito population dynamics have not been incorporated in a unified predictive framework. Here, we use mosquito surveillance data from 2005 to 2015 in China to integrate a generalized additive model of mosquito dynamics with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model of viral transmission to establish a predictive model linking climate and seasonal dengue risk. The findings illustrate that spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue are predictable from the local vector dynamics, which in turn, can be predicted by climate conditions. On the basis of the similar epidemiology and transmission cycles, we believe that this integrated approach and the finer mosquito surveillance data provide a framework that can be extended to predict outbreak risk of other mosquito-borne diseases as well as project dengue risk maps for future climate scenarios.

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Citations

Jul 10, 2019·Ecology Letters·Erin A MordecaiOswaldo Villena
Mar 19, 2020·Journal of Medical Entomology·Myung-Jae HwangHae-Kwan Cheong
Aug 13, 2020·Scientific Reports·Maarten SchramaErin E Gorsich
Jan 16, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Jiucheng XuQiyong Liu
Aug 11, 2020·Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution·Lauren J CatorSamraat Pawar
Nov 25, 2020·PLoS Biology·Jason R Rohr, Jeremy M Cohen
Nov 8, 2020·Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH·Olivia Lang SchultesWaleska Teixeira Caiaffa
Jan 2, 2021·Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology·Xun KangQianfeng Xia
Oct 13, 2020·Physics Reports·Jingfang FanHans Joachim Schellnhuber
Dec 29, 2020·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Steven W LindsayJakob Knudsen
Feb 23, 2021·Journal of Medical Entomology·Heidi E BrownMatthew Roach
Mar 16, 2021·Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology·Laura-Isobel McCall
Mar 19, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Cameron NosratA Desiree LaBeaud
Sep 13, 2020·The Lancet. Planetary Health·Erin A MordecaiA Desiree LaBeaud
Apr 4, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Yujuan YueQiyong Liu
Apr 29, 2021·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Paul J HuxleyLauren J Cator
May 27, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sophie A LeeRachel Lowe
Jun 12, 2021·International Journal of Biometeorology·Haorong MengWenjun Ma
Jun 12, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Juan Manuel GurevitzJuan Manuel Morales
Jul 13, 2021·Annals of the Entomological Society of America·Panpim ThongsripongShannon N Bennett
Jul 9, 2021·Reviews in Medical Virology·Tiantian WuYi-Ping Li
Oct 22, 2021·Global Change Biology·Louise S NørgaardDustin J Marshall

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
GAM

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