Oct 26, 2018

Climate drives spatial variation in Zika epidemics in Latin America

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Mallory J HarrisErin A Mordecai

Abstract

Between 2015 and 2017, Zika virus spread rapidly through populations in the Americas with no prior exposure to the disease. Although climate is a known determinant of many Aedes -transmitted diseases, it is currently unclear whether climate was a major driver the of Zika epidemic and how climate might have differentially impacted outbreak intensity across locations within Latin America. Here, we estimated force of infection for Zika over time and across provinces in Latin America using a time-varying Susceptible Infectious Recovered model. Climate factors explained less than 5% of the variation in weekly transmission intensity in a spatiotemporal model of force of infection by province over time, suggesting that week to week transmission within provinces may be too stochastic to predict. By contrast, climate and population factors were highly predictive of spatial variation in the presence and intensity of Zika transmission among provinces, with pseudo R2 values between 0.33 and 0.60. Temperature, temperature range, rainfall, and population size were the most important predictors of where Zika transmission occurred, while rainfall, relative humidity, and a nonlinear effect of temperature were the best predictors of Zika intensi...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Dengue Fever
Chikungunya Fever
Other Mosquito-borne Fever NOS
Genetic Vectors
Disease Transmission
Aedes aegypti
Location
Zika Virus Disease (Disorder)
Chikungunya virus
Culicidae

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