Climate forcing from the transport sectors

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Jan FuglestvedtRagnhild B Skeie

Abstract

Although the transport sector is responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions affecting climate, its overall contribution has not been quantified. We provide a comprehensive analysis of radiative forcing from the road transport, shipping, aviation, and rail subsectors, using both past- and forward-looking perspectives. We find that, since preindustrial times, transport has contributed approximately 15% and 31% of the total man-made CO2 and O3 forcing, respectively. A forward-looking perspective shows that the current emissions from transport are responsible for approximately 16% of the integrated net forcing over 100 years from all current man-made emissions. The dominating contributor to positive forcing (warming) is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By subsector, road transport is the largest contributor to warming. The transport sector also exerts cooling through reduced methane lifetime and atmospheric aerosol effects. Shipping causes net cooling, except on future time scales of several centuries. Much of the forcing from transport comes from emissions not covered by the Kyoto Protocol.

References

Dec 31, 2003·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko
May 22, 2007·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Keith P ShineNicola Stuber

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Citations

Mar 23, 2012·Environmental Science & Technology·Katsumasa TanakaKristin Rypdal
Aug 14, 2012·Environmental Science & Technology·Daven K HenzeChangsub Shim
Dec 3, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Terje Berntsen, Jan Fuglestvedt
Feb 6, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Nadine UngerSusanne Bauer
Apr 12, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ramón A AlvarezSteven P Hamburg
Dec 25, 2012·The Science of the Total Environment·Prashant Kumar, Boulent Imam
Nov 3, 2010·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Maria Segui-GomezJokin de Irala
Feb 4, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jason HillDiego Bonta
Mar 17, 2015·Biotechnology for Biofuels·Sandra Cerqueira PereiraCristiane Sanchez Farinas
Jun 27, 2017·Faraday Discussions·Morgan R EdwardsJessika E Trancik
Feb 8, 2018·Nature Communications·Mikhail SofievJames J Corbett
Jul 28, 2019·Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine·Maximilian Andreas Storz
Sep 12, 2019·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Nick Obradovich, Iyad Rahwan
Aug 8, 2012·Chemical Society Reviews·Arlene M FioreGuang Zeng
Dec 18, 2019·Nature Sustainability·Erin N MayfieldAllen L Robinson
Nov 17, 2010·ChemSusChem·Petra E de Jongh, Philipp Adelhelm
Nov 21, 2009·Environmental Science & Technology·Jan FuglestvedtRobert Sausen
Mar 10, 2010·Environmental Science & Technology·Stig B DalsørenJan S Fuglestvedt
Jul 30, 2010·Environmental Science & Technology·Jens Borken-KleefeldJan Fuglestvedt
Sep 23, 2011·Environmental Science & Technology·Glen P PetersJan S Fuglestvedt
May 1, 2015·Chemical Reviews·Erika von SchneidemesserMark A Sutton

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