Dec 25, 2017

Climate patterns and mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in South and Southeast Asia

Journal of Infection and Public Health
Joseph L ServadioCici Bauer

Abstract

Vector-borne infectious diseases, particularly mosquito-borne, pose a substantial threat to populations throughout South and Southeast Asia. Outbreaks have affected this region several times during the early years of the 21st century, notably through outbreaks of Chikungunya and Dengue. These diseases are believed to be highly prevalent at endemic levels in the region as well. With a changing global climate, the impacts of changes in ambient temperatures and precipitation levels on mosquito populations are important for understanding the effects on risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. This study aims to make use of a large data set to determine how risk of mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks relates to the highest monthly average temperature and precipitation for each year in South and Southeast Asia. Generalized additive models were used in a marked point process to fit nonlinear trends relating temperature and precipitation to outbreak risk, fitting splines for temperature and precipitation. Confounding factors for nation affluence, climate type, and ability to report outbreaks were also included. Parabolic trends for both temperature and precipitation were observed relating to outbreak risk. The trend for temper...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Dengue Fever
Study
Patterns
Mosquito Vectors
Chikungunya Fever
Other Mosquito-borne Fever NOS
Disease Outbreaks
Malaria
Cell Growth
Rain

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