Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador

The Lancet. Planetary Health
Rachel LoweXavier Rodó

Abstract

El Niño and its effect on local meteorological conditions potentially influences interannual variability in dengue transmission in southern coastal Ecuador. El Oro province is a key dengue surveillance site, due to the high burden of dengue, seasonal transmission, co-circulation of all four dengue serotypes, and the recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika. In this study, we used climate forecasts to predict the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in the city of Machala, following one of the strongest El Niño events on record. We incorporated precipitation, minimum temperature, and Niño3·4 index forecasts in a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model to predict dengue incidence. The model was initiated on Jan 1, 2016, producing monthly dengue forecasts until November, 2016. We accounted for misreporting of dengue due to the introduction of chikungunya in 2015, by using active surveillance data to correct reported dengue case data from passive surveillance records. We then evaluated the forecast retrospectively with available epidemiological information. The predictions correctly forecast an early peak in dengue incidence in March, 2016, with a 90% chance of exceeding the mean dengue incidence for the previous 5 years. Accounting fo...Continue Reading

Citations

Jul 18, 2018·PLoS Medicine·Rachel LoweAnna M Stewart-Ibarra
Jan 17, 2019·The New England Journal of Medicine·Andy Haines, Kristie Ebi
Mar 17, 2019·American Journal of Epidemiology·G Brooke AndersonFrancesca Dominici
Jul 6, 2019·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Pengfei JiaXiang Chen
Sep 19, 2019·Cadernos de saúde pública·Bergson Cavalcanti de MoraesJoão Batista Miranda Ribeiro
Jan 22, 2020·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Jian ChengWenbiao Hu
Feb 14, 2020·PloS One·Denise Catarina AndrioliJunir Antonio Lutinski
Jul 12, 2020·Global Change Biology·Ayesha I T TullochAaron C Greenville
Sep 3, 2019·BMC Medicine·Mahmood AkhtarLauren M Gardner
Jan 10, 2018·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Rachel LoweMarilia Sá Carvalho
Aug 31, 2018·Parasites & Vectors·RajReni B KaulJohn M Drake
Nov 13, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Michael A JohanssonJean-Paul Chretien
Aug 31, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Holly Ching Yu LamShakoor Hajat
Apr 11, 2018·Scientific Reports·M F Vincenti-GonzalezM E Grillet
Jul 28, 2020·Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease·Harapan HarapanAllison Imrie
Nov 25, 2020·PLoS Biology·Rachel LoweAnna M Stewart-Ibarra
Jan 29, 2021·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Rachel TidmanRafael Ruiz de Castañeda
Nov 15, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Rachel LoweMercedes Pascual
Oct 28, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Jeremy HessRachel Lowe
Mar 5, 2021·PLoS Medicine·Felipe J Colón-GonzálezRachel Lowe
Mar 29, 2021·Archivos de bronconeumología·Carlos Cabrera LópezCarlos A Jiménez-Ruiz
May 4, 2021·Food Ethics·Jeana Cadby
Nov 17, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·James L MartinSadie J Ryan

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