Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá

Malaria Journal
Lisbeth Amarilis HurtadoLuis Fernando Chaves

Abstract

Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 29, 2020·Parasitology·Luis Fernando ChavesRodrigo Marín Rodríguez
Feb 14, 2019·Cadernos de saúde pública·Bruna Wolfarth-CoutoNaziano Filizola
Nov 16, 2019·PloS One·Lorenzo Cáceres CarreraRolando Torres
Dec 22, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Abiodun AdeolaChristina Botai
Jan 14, 2021·Scientific Reports·Jailos LubindaAdrian J Moore
Oct 11, 2021·The Lancet. Planetary Health·Pablo M De SalazarCaroline O Buckee

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