Clinical risk models for preterm birth less than 28 weeks and less than 32 weeks of gestation using a large retrospective cohort.

Journal of Perinatology : Official Journal of the California Perinatal Association
Reza Arabi BelaghiSarah D McDonald

Abstract

To develop risk prediction models for singleton preterm birth (PTB) < 28 weeks and <32 weeks. Using a retrospective cohort of 267,226 singleton births in Ontario hospitals, we included variables from the first and second trimester in multivariable logistic regression models to predict overall and spontaneous PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks. During the first trimester, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of PTB < 28 weeks for nulliparous and multiparous women was 68.5% (95% CI: 63.5-73.6%) and 73.4% (68.6-78.2%), respectively, while for PTB < 32 weeks it was 68.9% (65.5-72.3%) and 75.5% (72.3-78.7%), respectively. AUCs for second-trimester models were 72.4% (95% CI: 69.7-75.1%) and 78.2% (95% CI: 75.8-80.5%), respectively, in nulliparous and multiparous women. Predicted probabilities were well-calibrated within a wide range around expected base prevalence for the study outcomes. Our prediction models generated acceptable AUCs for PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks with good calibration during the first and second trimester.

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