Combinatorial decomposition of an outbreak signature.

Mathematical Biosciences
Nina H Fefferman, Elena N Naumova

Abstract

We use mathematically rigorous definitions of epidemiological concepts in order to derive a sequential combinatorial model of disease outbreak decomposition. We define the idea of a population specific 'disease signature' and use this in order to decompose and further understand outbreaks as incidents of spatial and temporal spread of disease exposure both in, and across, populations. This allows us to differentiate between different disease spread scenarios with a level of sensitivity that previous models were unable to provide. This perspective leads us to propose a new practical definition for 'outbreak'. In addition, we are able to use this model to understand, estimate, and, in some cases, correct for, the likely instances of reporting error inherent in disease surveillance. We demonstrate our model first with a hypothetical outbreak scenario and then in an analysis of suspected outbreaks of waterborne diseases in Massachusetts (MA) in 1995.

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Aug 22, 2008·Environmetrics·Elena N Naumova, Ian B Macneill

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Citations

Sep 11, 2012·Clinical Microbiology and Infection : the Official Publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases·M MoorthyE N Naumova
Aug 24, 2021·Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology·Matthew J Silk, Nina H Fefferman

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