Combining public participatory surveillance and occupancy modelling to predict the distributional response of Ixodes scapularis to climate change

Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases
David J Lieske, Vett K Lloyd

Abstract

Ixodes scapularis, a known vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (Bbss), is undergoing range expansion in many parts of Canada. The province of New Brunswick, which borders jurisdictions with established populations of I. scapularis, constitutes a range expansion zone for this species. To better understand the current and potential future distribution of this tick under climate change projections, this study applied occupancy modelling to distributional records of adult ticks that successfully overwintered, obtained through passive surveillance. This study indicates that I. scapularis occurs throughout the southern-most portion of the province, in close proximity to coastlines and major waterways. Milder winter conditions, as indicated by the number of degree days <0 °C, was determined to be a strong predictor of tick occurrence, as was, to a lesser degree, rising levels of annual precipitation, leading to a final model with a predictive accuracy of 0.845 (range: 0.828-0.893). Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections predict that a significant proportion of the province (roughly a quarter to a third) will be highly suitable for I. scapularis by the 2080s. Comparison with cases of canine infection show good spatial ag...Continue Reading

Citations

Sep 1, 2018·Journal of Parasitic Diseases : Official Organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology·Javad BabaieSeyed Javad Sadat
Oct 18, 2018·Healthcare·Vett K Lloyd, Ralph G Hawkins
Aug 11, 2019·Healthcare·Emilie M GaudetVett Lloyd
May 6, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Mario Levesque, Matthew Klohn
Oct 23, 2019·The Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases & Medical Microbiology = Journal Canadien Des Maladies Infectieuses Et De La Microbiologie Médicale·Dorothy WallaceMariana J Webb
Apr 3, 2021·International Journal for Parasitology·Xin YangSen Li

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