Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

Nature Communications
Matthias MengelCarl-Friedrich Schleussner

Abstract

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

References

May 2, 2009·Nature·Malte MeinshausenMyles R Allen
May 18, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Stephen F PriceBenjamin E Smith
Jul 5, 2013·Nature·Marco SteinacherThomas F Stocker
Jul 17, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Anders LevermannAlexander Robinson
Jul 30, 2015·Nature Communications·Sönke DangendorfJürgen Jensen
Oct 10, 2015·Nature Communications·Adrian LuckmanMark Inall
Nov 19, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann
Feb 24, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Matthias MengelRicarda Winkelmann
Feb 24, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Robert E KoppStefan Rahmstorf
Apr 1, 2016·Nature·Robert M DeConto, David Pollard
Nov 9, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Svetlana JevrejevaJohn C Moore
Jun 7, 2017·Nature Communications·Joeri RogeljKeywan Riahi
Aug 7, 2017·Science Advances·Stefan HoferJonathan L Bamber

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Oct 31, 2018·Science Progress·Christopher J Rhodes
Nov 7, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Alexander NauelsCarl-Friedrich Schleussner
Jan 24, 2019·Coastal Management : an International Journal of Marine Environment, Resources, Law, and Society·John A HallKathleen D White
Oct 13, 2020·Physics Reports·Jingfang FanHans Joachim Schellnhuber
Dec 14, 2019·The Science of the Total Environment·Martin DorberFrancesca Verones
Apr 18, 2021·Nature Communications·Andreas Oschlies
May 7, 2021·Nature·Robert M DeContoAndrea Dutton

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

MAGICC

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.