Mar 11, 2016

Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Sebastian FunkW. John Edmunds

Abstract

The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. Since these outbreaks occurred in confined island populations, their analysis can improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compare three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics, making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks. We found that the estimated reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue are similar when considered in the same setting, but that, conversely, reproduction number for the same disease can vary considerably by setting. On the Yap Main Islands, we estimate a mean reproduction number of 4.3 (95% credible interval 3.1-6.1) for the dengue outbreak and 4.8 (2.9-8.1) for the Zika outbreak, whereas for the dengue outbreak on Fais our mean estimate is 10 (5.5-18). We further found that the ranges of most disease-specific parameters largely overlap between dengue and Zika, but that reporting rates of Zika cases are much smaller (3...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Dengue Fever
Virus
Reproduction
Other Mosquito-borne Fever NOS
Disease Transmission
Analysis
Zika Virus Disease (Disorder)
Culicidae
Comparative Analysis
Zika virus (organism)

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