Comparing methods of measuring geographic patterns in temporal trends: an application to county-level heart disease mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2010

Annals of Epidemiology
Adam S VaughanMichele Casper

Abstract

To demonstrate the implications of choosing analytical methods for quantifying spatiotemporal trends, we compare the assumptions, implementation, and outcomes of popular methods using county-level heart disease mortality in the United States between 1973 and 2010. We applied four regression-based approaches (joinpoint regression, both aspatial and spatial generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian space-time model) and compared resulting inferences for geographic patterns of local estimates of annual percent change and associated uncertainty. The average local percent change in heart disease mortality from each method was -4.5%, with the Bayesian model having the smallest range of values. The associated uncertainty in percent change differed markedly across the methods, with the Bayesian space-time model producing the narrowest range of variance (0.0-0.8). The geographic pattern of percent change was consistent across methods with smaller declines in the South Central United States and larger declines in the Northeast and Midwest. However, the geographic patterns of uncertainty differed markedly between methods. The similarity of results, including geographic patterns, for magnitude of percent change across these methods val...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 15, 2016·Accident; Analysis and Prevention·Sergey SinelnikovEmily A Chavez
Apr 8, 2017·Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis & Frontotemporal Degeneration·Sofiane KabAlexis Elbaz
Jul 31, 2019·European Journal of Heart Failure·Pedro MolinerAntoni Bayes-Genis
Nov 7, 2019·Stroke; a Journal of Cerebral Circulation·Eric W HallMichele Casper
Feb 5, 2021·Journal of the American Heart Association·Adam S VaughanMichele Casper
May 7, 2021·Stroke; a Journal of Cerebral Circulation·Rebecca C WoodruffAdam S Vaughan
Feb 21, 2021·Hepatology : Official Journal of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases·Eric W HallPatrick S Sullivan

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