Comparison of deep learning with regression analysis in creating predictive models for SARS-CoV-2 outcomes

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Ahmed AbdulaalLuke S P Moore

Abstract

Accurately predicting patient outcomes in Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could aid patient management and allocation of healthcare resources. There are a variety of methods which can be used to develop prognostic models, ranging from logistic regression and survival analysis to more complex machine learning algorithms and deep learning. Despite several models having been created for SARS-CoV-2, most of these have been found to be highly susceptible to bias. We aimed to develop and compare two separate predictive models for death during admission with SARS-CoV-2. Between March 1 and April 24, 2020, 398 patients were identified with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in a London teaching hospital. Data from electronic health records were extracted and used to create two predictive models using: (1) a Cox regression model and (2) an artificial neural network (ANN). Model performance profiles were assessed by validation, discrimination, and calibration. Both the Cox regression and ANN models achieved high accuracy (83.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 73.8-91.1 and 90.0%, 95% CI 81.2-95.6, respectively). The area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) for the ANN (92.6%, 95% CI 91.1-94.1) was significan...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 27, 2021·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·Mehmet Akif OzdemirOnan Guren
Jul 26, 2021·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·William GalanterHoushang Darabi
Aug 19, 2021·Scientific Reports·Maryam AlJameAmeer Mohammed

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
Assay

Software Mentioned

TensorFlow
TRIPOD

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