Comparison of liver disease state progression in patients with eradication of versus persistent infection with hepatitis C virus: Markov chain analysis.

Journal of Viral Hepatitis
Toshifumi TadaJunko Tanaka

Abstract

To investigate the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication after antiviral therapy versus those with persistent HCV infection. Four hundred and eighty patients (5259 person-years [PYs]) who received interferon-based therapy and achieved sustained virologic response and 848 patients (3853 PYs) with persistent HCV infection were included. In the analysis of 1-year liver disease state transition probability matrices using Markov chain models, progression to cirrhosis from the chronic hepatitis state was observed (0.00%-0.63%) in patients with HCV eradication. Among patients with chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis and HCV eradication, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was observed in males aged ≥ 50 years (0.97%-1.96%) and females aged ≥ 60 years (0.26%-5.00%). Additionally, in patients with cirrhosis and HCV eradication, improvement to chronic hepatitis was also observed (4.94%-10.64%). Conversely, in patients with chronic hepatitis and persistent HCV infection, progression to cirrhosis was observed in males aged ≥ 30 years and female aged ≥ 40 years (0.44%-1.99%). In males aged ≥ 40 years and female aged ≥ 50 years with cirrhosis, the transition probability for HCC was relati...Continue Reading

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