Comparison of methods for renal risk prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-36)

PloS One
Ineke J RiphagenStephan J L Bakker

Abstract

Patients with diabetes are at high risk of death prior to reaching end-stage renal disease, but most models predicting the risk of kidney disease do not take this competing risk into account. We aimed to compare the performance of Cox regression and competing risk models for prediction of early- and late-stage renal complications in type 2 diabetes. Patients with type 2 diabetes participating in the observational ZODIAC study were included. Prediction models for (micro)albuminuria and 50% increase in serum creatinine (SCr) were developed using Cox regression and competing risk analyses. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. During a total follow-up period of 10 years, 183 out of 640 patients (28.6%) with normoalbuminuria developed (micro)albuminuria, and 22 patients (3.4%) died without developing (micro)albuminuria (i.e. experienced the competing event). Seventy-nine out of 1,143 patients (6.9%) reached the renal end point of 50% increase in SCr, while 219 (19.2%) died without developing the renal end point. Performance of the Cox and competing risk models predicting (micro)albuminuria was similar and differences in predicted risks were small. However, the Cox model increasingly overestimated the ris...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 25, 2017·Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation : Official Publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association·Merel van DiepenFriedo W Dekker
Mar 10, 2021·Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN·Chava L RamspekUNKNOWN EQUAL Study Investigators
Nov 3, 2021·Systematic Reviews·Sigit Ari SaputroAmmarin Thakkinstian

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
coronary artery bypass

Software Mentioned

SPSS
STATA
R

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