Conformity to the power PC theory of causal induction depends on the type of probe question

The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology : QJEP
Darrell J Collins, David R Shanks

Abstract

P. W. Cheng's (1997) power PC theory of causal induction proposes that causal estimates are based on the power (P) of a potential cause, where P is the contingency between the cause and effect normalized by the base rate of the effect. Most previous research using a standard causal probe question has failed to support the predictions of the power PC model but recently Buehner, Cheng, and Clifford (2003) found that participants responded in terms of causal power when probed with a counterfactual test question, which they argued prompted participants to consider the base rate of the effect. However, Buehner et al. framed their counterfactual question in terms of frequency, a factor that has been demonstrated to decrease base rate neglect in judgements under uncertainty. In the experiment reported here, we sought to disentangle the influence of counterfactual and frequency framing of the probe question to determine which factor is responsible for encouraging responses in terms of causal power.

References

Feb 25, 2000·Psychological Review·K Lober, D R Shanks
Jul 12, 2002·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·Helena MatutePieter-Jan De Marez
Aug 22, 2002·The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. A, Human Experimental Psychology·Jan De HouwerSteven Glautier
Jan 1, 2003·Memory & Cognition·Darrell J Collins, David R Shanks
Jul 26, 2003·The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. A, Human Experimental Psychology·José C Perales, David R Shanks
Nov 19, 2003·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·Marc J BuehnerDeborah Clifford

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Citations

Mar 17, 2007·The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology : QJEP·David R Shanks
Aug 4, 2005·Learning & Behavior·Marc J Buehner
Nov 2, 2007·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·José C Perales, David R Shanks
Jul 15, 2011·British Journal of Psychology·Helena MatuteMiguel A Vadillo
Jun 20, 2013·The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology : QJEP·Itxaso BarberiaA G Baker
Sep 21, 2018·Experimental Psychology·Moyun Wang, Pengfei Yin
Apr 26, 2018·Frontiers in Psychology·David Danks

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