Considering unseen arrivals in predictions of establishment risk based on border biosecurity interceptions.

Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
Rebecca M TurnerAlex James

Abstract

Assessing species establishment risk is an important task used for informing biosecurity activities aimed at preventing biological invasions. Propagule pressure is a major contributor to the probability of invading species establishment; however, direct assessment of numbers of individuals arriving is virtually never possible. Inspections conducted at borders by biosecurity officials record counts of species (or higher-level taxa) intercepted during inspections, which can be used as proxies for arrival rates. Such data may therefore be useful for predicting species establishments, though some species may establish despite never being intercepted. We present a stochastic process-based model of the arrival-interception-establishment process to predict species establishment risk from interception count data. The model can be used to estimate the probability of establishment, both for species that were intercepted and species that had no interceptions during a given observation period. We fit the stochastic model to data on two insect families, Cerambycidae and Aphididae, that were intercepted and/or established in the United States or New Zealand. We also explore the effects of variation in model parameters and the inclusion of an...Continue Reading

References

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Feb 13, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Hanno SeebensFranz Essl
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Mar 31, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Alice FournierFranck Courchamp

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Citations

Nov 27, 2020·Emerging Topics in Life Sciences·Frank H KochKrista Ryall
Feb 27, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Oliver C Stringham, Julie L Lockwood
Jul 14, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Rebecca M TurnerAndrew M Liebhold
Aug 27, 2021·PloS One·Jesse M RubensteinJohn G Hampton

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