Consistent Estimates of Very Low HIV Incidence Among People Who Inject Drugs: New York City, 2005-2014

American Journal of Public Health
D C Des JarlaisDavid Perlman

Abstract

To compare methods for estimating low HIV incidence among persons who inject drugs. We examined 4 methods in New York City, 2005 to 2014: (1) HIV seroconversions among repeat participants, (2) increase of HIV prevalence by additional years of injection among new injectors, (3) the New York State and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stratified extrapolation algorithm, and (4) newly diagnosed HIV cases reported to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The 4 estimates were consistent: (1) repeat participants: 0.37 per 100 person-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05/100 PY, 1.33/100 PY); (2) regression of prevalence by years injecting: 0.61 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.36/100 PY, 0.87/100 PY); (3) stratified extrapolation algorithm: 0.32 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.18/100 PY, 0.46/100 PY); and (4) newly diagnosed cases of HIV: 0.14 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.11/100 PY, 0.16/100 PY). All methods appear to capture the same phenomenon of very low and decreasing HIV transmission among persons who inject drugs. Public Health Implications. If resources are available, the use of multiple methods would provide better information for public health purposes.

References

Feb 17, 1989·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·D C Des JarlaisR Maslansky
Dec 8, 1998·American Journal of Public Health·D C Des JarlaisM Marmor
Aug 5, 2008·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·H Irene HallUNKNOWN HIV Incidence Surveillance Group
Sep 27, 2008·Lancet·Bradley M MathersUNKNOWN 2007 Reference Group to the UN on HIV and Injecting Drug Use
Dec 26, 2008·Drug and Alcohol Dependence·Don C Des JarlaisSamuel R Friedman
Feb 10, 2011·Substance Use & Misuse·Don C Des JarlaisSamuel R Friedman
Jun 22, 2011·The International Journal on Drug Policy·Stephen E LankenauMeghan Treese
Aug 10, 2011·PloS One·Joseph PrejeanUNKNOWN HIV Incidence Surveillance Group
Sep 20, 2011·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·D ParaskevisA Hatzakis

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Citations

Mar 24, 2016·The International Journal on Drug Policy·Don C Des JarlaisUNKNOWN DRIVE Study Team
Sep 16, 2016·American Journal of Public Health·Andrew John MitschAruna Surendera Babu
Sep 11, 2016·Addiction·Don C Des JarlaisDavid C Perlman
Apr 12, 2017·American Journal of Public Health·Kevin CranstonAlfred DeMaria
May 19, 2017·American Journal of Public Health·Don C Des JarlaisAimee Campbell
Feb 21, 2018·Current HIV/AIDS Reports·David C Perlman, Ashly E Jordan
Jul 10, 2018·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Czarina N BehrendsBruce R Schackman
May 26, 2018·Current HIV/AIDS Reports·Asher J SchranzWilliam C Miller

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