Construction and Evaluation of a Sepsis Risk Prediction Model for Urinary Tract Infection.

Frontiers in Medicine
Luming ZhangHaiyan Yin

Abstract

Background: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the common causes of sepsis. However, nomograms predicting the sepsis risk in UTI patients have not been comprehensively researched. The goal of this study was to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of sepsis in UTI patients. Methods: Patients diagnosed with UTI were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. These patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Independent prognostic factors for UTI patients were determined using forward stepwise logistic regression. A nomogram containing these factors was established to predict the sepsis incidence in UTI patients. The validity of our nomogram model was determined using multiple indicators, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), correction curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and decision-curve analysis (DCA). Results: This study included 6,551 UTI patients. Stepwise regression analysis revealed that the independent risk factors for sepsis in UTI patients were congestive heart failure, diabetes, liver disease, fluid electrolyte disord...Continue Reading

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