Coral reef habitat response to climate change scenarios

PloS One
Lauren A FreemanArthur J Miller

Abstract

Coral reef ecosystems are threatened by both climate change and direct anthropogenic stress. Climate change will alter the physico-chemical environment that reefs currently occupy, leaving only limited regions that are conducive to reef habitation. Identifying these regions early may aid conservation efforts and inform decisions to transplant particular coral species or groups. Here a species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe habitat suitable for coral reef growth. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for corals (order Scleractinia). Environmental input variables best at representing the limits of suitable reef growth regions were isolated using a principal component analysis. Climate-driven changes in suitable habitat depend strongly on the unique region of reefs used to train Maxent. Increased global habitat loss was predicted in both climate projections through the 21(st) century. A maximum habitat loss of 43% by 2100 was predicted in RCP4.5 and 82% in RCP8.5. When the model is trained solely with environmental data from the Caribbean/Atlantic, 83% of global habi...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 5, 2015·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Mingshu WangMarguerite Madden
Jul 11, 2018·Ecology and Evolution·Bethany J HarveyDavid P Edwards
Jan 7, 2016·PloS One·Cintia Camila Silva AngelieriClive Alexander McAlpine

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCA

Software Mentioned

Maxent
Matlab®
CESM1

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