Correlations in fossil extinction and origination rates through geological time

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
James W Kirchner, A Weil

Abstract

Recent analyses have suggested that extinction and origination rates exhibit long-range correlations, implying that the fossil record may be controlled by self-organized criticality or other scale-free internal dynamics of the biosphere. Here we directly test for correlations in the fossil record by calculating the autocorrelation of extinction [corrected] and origination rates through time. Our results show that extinction rates are uncorrelated beyond the average duration of a stratigraphic interval. Thus, they lack the long-range correlations predicted by the self-organized criticality hypothesis. In contrast, origination rates show strong autocorrelations due to long-term trends. After detrending, origination rates generally show weak positive correlations at lags of 5-10 million years (Myr) and weak negative correlations at lags of 10-30 Myr, consistent with aperiodic oscillations around their long-term trends. We hypothesize that origination rates are more correlated than extinction rates because originations of new taxa create new ecological niches and new evolutionary pathways for reaching them, thus creating conditions that favour further diversification.

References

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Citations

Aug 13, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·John Alroy
Dec 20, 2003·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·James L Cornette, Bruce S Lieberman
Oct 15, 2008·The American Naturalist·Mark A McPeek
Sep 13, 2003·The American Naturalist·Abigail Lane, M J Benton
Jun 26, 2013·Journal of Theoretical Biology·David V FosterJacob G Foster

Related Concepts

Biological Evolution
Fossils
Fourier Transform
Geology
Habitat

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