COVID-19 and cataract surgery backlog in Medicare beneficiaries.

Journal of Cataract and Refractive Surgery
Shruti AggarwalAmit Jain

Abstract

To forecast the volume of cataract surgery in Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 2020 and to estimate the surgical backlog that may be created due to COVID-19. Medicare Beneficiaries, United States. Epidemiologic modeling. Baseline trends in cataract surgery among Medicare beneficiaries were assessed by querying the Medicare Part B Provider Utilization National Summary data. It was assumed that once the surgical deferment is over, there will be a ramp-up period; this was modeled using a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Total surgical backlog 2 years postsuspension was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were used to test model assumptions. Assuming cataract surgeries were to resume in May 2020, it would take 4 months under an optimistic scenario to revert to 90% of the expected pre-COVID forecasted volume. At 2-year postsuspension, the resulting backlog would be between 1.1 and 1.6 million cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed that a substantial surgical backlog would remain despite potentially lower surgical demand in the future. Suspension of elective cataract surgical care during the COVID-19 surge might have a lasting impact on ophthalmology and will likely result in a cataract surgical patient backlog. These data ...Continue Reading

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Jul 4, 2020·The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery. American Volume·Amit JainShruti Aggarwal

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Citations

Nov 10, 2020·Current Opinion in Ophthalmology·Dominic F Hakim, Natalie A Afshari
Nov 10, 2020·Quality Management in Health Care·Meghan K BerkenstockAdrienne W Scott
Oct 31, 2020·Indian Journal of Ophthalmology·Ruchi GoelPalak Pumma
Sep 15, 2020·Journal of Cataract and Refractive Surgery·Michael J FliotsosDivya Srikumaran
Sep 6, 2020·American Journal of Ophthalmology·Hasenin Al-KhersanZubair A Ansari
Dec 6, 2020·Current Opinion in Ophthalmology·Dominic F Hakim, Natalie A Afshari
Mar 18, 2021·Indian Journal of Ophthalmology·Madhav GoelSulakshna Aggarwal
Mar 26, 2021·Clinical Ophthalmology·Stephen N Joffe

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