COVID-19: Development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and resusceptibility

Physica D. Nonlinear Phenomena
Kok Yew Ng, Meei Mei Gui

Abstract

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges we face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current pandemic. Such simulations enable early indications on the future projections of the pandemic and is useful to estimate the efficiency of control action in the battle against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The SEIR model is a well-known method used in computational simulations of infectious viral diseases and it has been widely used to model other epidemics such as Ebola, SARS, MERS, and influenza A. This paper presents a modified SEIRS model with additional exit conditions in the form of death rates and resusceptibility, where we can tune the exit conditions in the model to extend prediction on the current projections of the pandemic into three possible outcomes; death, recovery, and recovery with a possibility of resusceptibility. The model also considers specific information such as ageing factor of the population, time delay on the development of the pandemic due to control action measures, as well as resusceptibility with temporal immune response. Owing to huge variations in clinical symptoms exhibited by...Continue Reading

Citations

Aug 25, 2020·Journal of Mathematics in Industry·Markus Kantner, Thomas Koprucki
Jan 19, 2021·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·Amir Hossein Amiri MehraIman Zamani
May 11, 2021·Physica D. Nonlinear Phenomena·Víctor M Pérez-García
Jun 17, 2021·Scientific Reports·Subhendu Paul, Emmanuel Lorin
Jun 15, 2021·Physica D. Nonlinear Phenomena·Nick James, Max Menzies
Aug 17, 2021·Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering : State of the Art Reviews·Asif AfzalIrfan Anjum Badruddin
Sep 25, 2021·Journal of Public Health Research·Norazaliza Mohd JamilNoryanti Muhammad

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