DOI: 2004.00056Mar 31, 2020Paper

COVID-19 Outbreak in Pakistan: Model-Driven Impact Analysis and Guidelines

Kashif Zia, Umar Farooq


Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of the virus, but also, takes care of population and mobility data. The model is calibrated based on epidemic data and events specifically of Pakistan, which can easily be generalized. The simulation results are quite disturbing, indicating that, even with stringent social distancing and testing strategies and for a quite long time (even beyond one year), the spread would be significant (in tens of thousands). The real alarm is when some of these measures got leaked for a short time within this duration, which may result in catastrophic situation when millions of people would be infected.

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds


Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Hereditary Sensory Autonomic Neuropathy

Hereditary Sensory Autonomic Neuropathies are a group of inherited neurodegenerative disorders characterized clinically by loss of sensation and autonomic dysfunction. Here is the latest research on these neuropathies.

Glut1 Deficiency

Glut1 deficiency, an autosomal dominant, genetic metabolic disorder associated with a deficiency of GLUT1, the protein that transports glucose across the blood brain barrier, is characterized by mental and motor developmental delays and infantile seizures. Follow the latest research on Glut1 deficiency with this feed.

Regulation of Vocal-Motor Plasticity

Dopaminergic projections to the basal ganglia and nucleus accumbens shape the learning and plasticity of motivated behaviors across species including the regulation of vocal-motor plasticity and performance in songbirds. Discover the latest research on the regulation of vocal-motor plasticity here.

Neural Activity: Imaging

Imaging of neural activity in vivo has developed rapidly recently with the advancement of fluorescence microscopy, including new applications using miniaturized microscopes (miniscopes). This feed follows the progress in this growing field.

Nodding Syndrome

Nodding Syndrome is a neurological and epileptiform disorder characterized by psychomotor, mental, and growth retardation. Discover the latest research on Nodding Syndrome here.

LRRK2 & Microtubules

Mutations in the LRRK2 gene are risk-factors for developing Parkinson’s disease (PD). LRRK2 mutations in PD have been shown to enhance its association with microtubules. Here is the latest research.

Related Papers

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Kashif Zia, U. Farooq
MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Takashi Nakano, Y. Ikeda
MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Saroj Kumar ChandraM. K. Bajpai
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved