Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories-Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context

Viruses
Henry Loeffler-WirthHans Binder

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with marked differences between regions and countries. These are not completely understood, but presumably, provide a clue to find ways to mitigate epidemics until strategies leading to its eradication become available. We describe an iteractive monitoring tool available in the internet. It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories that visualize the transmission and removal rates of the epidemic and in this way bridge epi-curve tracking with modelling approaches. Examples were provided which characterize state of epidemic in different regions of the world in terms of fast and slow growing and decaying regimes and estimate associated rate factors. The basic spread of the disease is associated with transmission between two individuals every two-three days on the average. Non-pharmaceutical interventions decrease this value to up to ten days, whereas 'complete lock down' measures are required to stop the epidemic. Comparison of trajectories revealed marked differences between the countries regarding efficiency of measures taken against the epidemic. Trajectories also reveal marked country-specific recovery...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Feb 7, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Daniel LucheșMaria-Magdalena Lupchian
Oct 16, 2020·Briefings in Bioinformatics·Daniele MercatelliFederico M Giorgi
Jul 25, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Derek HuangYi Xiao

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