Jun 2, 2020

COVID-19 Trend and Forecast in India: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Aalok Ranjan Chaurasia

Abstract

This paper analyses the trend in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India using joinpoint regression analysis. The analysis reveals that there has been little impact of the nation-wide lockdown and subsequent extension on the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in the country and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that relaxations under the third and the fourth phase of the lockdown has resulted in spiking the reported confirmed cases of COVID-19. The analysis also suggests that if the current trend continues, in the immediate future, then the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country is likely to increase to 21 thousand by 15 June 2020 whereas the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 will increase to around 422 thousand.

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Mentioned in this Paper

Analysis
Widening
A 19
Regression Analysis

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