Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New Dose-Response Modeling

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Michael J Messner, Philip Berger

Abstract

Cryptosporidium human dose-response data from seven species/isolates are used to investigate six models of varying complexity that estimate infection probability as a function of dose. Previous models attempt to explicitly account for virulence differences among C. parvum isolates, using three or six species/isolates. Four (two new) models assume species/isolate differences are insignificant and three of these (all but exponential) allow for variable human susceptibility. These three human-focused models (fractional Poisson, exponential with immunity and beta-Poisson) are relatively simple yet fit the data significantly better than the more complex isolate-focused models. Among these three, the one-parameter fractional Poisson model is the simplest but assumes that all Cryptosporidium oocysts used in the studies were capable of initiating infection. The exponential with immunity model does not require such an assumption and includes the fractional Poisson as a special case. The fractional Poisson model is an upper bound of the exponential with immunity model and applies when all oocysts are capable of initiating infection. The beta Poisson model does not allow an immune human subpopulation; thus infection probability approaches...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jan 14, 2017·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Philip J Schmidt, Cynthia L Chappell
Apr 13, 2018·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Neha SungerCharles N Haas
Jul 4, 2019·Microbiology·Rachel M ChalmersKevin Tyler
Sep 25, 2019·Journal of Dairy Science·Marlen I Lasprilla-MantillaChristopher Fernandez-Prada
Oct 3, 2018·Journal of Environmental Quality·Kerry A HamiltonWarish Ahmed
Aug 22, 2020·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Frederick BloetscherJeanine D Dudle
Mar 4, 2017·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Piotr RzymskiBarbara Poniedziałek
May 4, 2018·Current Environmental Health Reports·Sharon P NappierSorina E Eftim
Jan 1, 2018·Water·Mary E SchoenJay L Garland
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Dec 4, 2018·EFSA Journal·UNKNOWN EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ)Lucy Robertson
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Aug 7, 2018·Environmental Science & Technology·Alexandria B BoehmWiley C Jennings
Jan 8, 2021·Environmental Science & Technology Letters·Mary E SchoenJay Garland

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