PMID: 19936453Nov 26, 2009Paper

Dante Pazzanese risk score for non-st-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia
Elizabete Silva Dos SantosLeopoldo S Piegas

Abstract

The probability of adverse events estimate is crucial in acute coronary syndrome condition. To develop a risk score for the brazilian population presenting non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. One thousand and twenty seven (1,027) patients were investigated prospectively at a cardiology center in Brazil. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to estimate death or (re)infarction risk within 30 days. Model predictive accuracy was determined by C statistic. Combined event occurred in 54 patients (5.3%). The score was created by the arithmetic sum of independent predictors points. Points were determined by corresponding probabilities of event occurrence. The following variables have been identified: age increase (0 to 9 points); diabetes mellitus history (2 points) or prior stroke (4 points); no previous use of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (1 point); creatinine level increase (0 to 10 points); the combination of troponin I level increase and ST-segment depression (0 to 4 points). Four risk groups were defined: very low (up to 5 points); low (6 to 10 points ); intermediate (11 to 15 points ); high risk (16 to 30 points ). The C statistic was 0.78 for event probability, and 0.74 for risk score. A r...Continue Reading

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