Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
S SandeepV Praveen

Abstract

Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its ∼600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario. The distribution of LPS genesis shifts poleward as it weakens, with oceanic genesis decreasing by ∼60% and continental genesis increasing by ∼10%; over land the increase in storm counts is accompanied by a shift toward lower storm wind speeds. The weakening and poleward shift of the genesis distribution in a warmer climate are confirmed and attributed, via a statistical model, to the reduction and poleward shift of low-level absolute vorticity over the monsoon region, which in turn are robust features of most coupled model projections. The poleward shift in LPS activity re...Continue Reading

References

Oct 1, 2011·Science·Massimo A BollasinaV Ramaswamy
Oct 22, 2013·Scientific Reports·A G PrajeeshD V Bhaskar Rao
Sep 18, 2014·Scientific Reports·S Sandeep, R S Ajayamohan

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Citations

Mar 2, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Kieran M R Hunt, A P Dimri
Aug 14, 2021·Scientific Reports·Ravi Kumar Guntu, Ankit Agarwal

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