Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes

Global Change Biology
Eric BöneckeHartmut Stützel

Abstract

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agro-meteorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published N-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agro-meteorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agro-climatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 23, 2020·TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik·Rod J SnowdonAndreas Stahl
Oct 16, 2021·TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik·F LaidigH P Piepho

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