Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health
Adeshina I AdekunleEmma S McBryde

Abstract

Following the outbreak of novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the disease named COVID-19, in Wuhan, China in late 2019, countries have implemented different interventions such as travel bans to slow the spread of this novel virus. This brief report evaluates the effect of travel bans imposed to prevent COVID-19 importation in the Australian context. We developed a stochastic meta-population model to capture the global dynamics and spread of COVID-19. By adjusting our model to capture the travel bans imposed globally and in Australia, the predicted COVID-19 cases imported to Australia were evaluated in comparison to observed imported cases. Our modelling results closely aligned with observed cases in Australia and elsewhere. We observed a 79% reduction in COVID-19 importation and a delay of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia by approximately one month. Further projection of COVID-19 to May 2020 showed spread patterns depending on the basic reproduction number. Imposing the travel ban was effective in delaying widespread transmission of COVID-19. However, strengthening of the domestic control measures is needed to prevent Australia from becoming another epicentre. Implications for public health...Continue Reading

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Jan 29, 2017·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Ace R North, H Charles J Godfray
Feb 23, 2020·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Ensheng DongLauren Gardner
Feb 28, 2020·Journal of Clinical Medicine·Asami AnzaiHiroshi Nishiura
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Citations

Nov 19, 2020·The Medical Journal of Australia·Nick ScottMargaret E Hellard
Jan 28, 2021·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Jacob BurnsEva Rehfuess
Mar 11, 2021·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Theophilus I EmetoOlayinka S Ilesanmi
Mar 26, 2021·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Jacob BurnsEva Rehfuess
Apr 18, 2021·Health Promotion Journal of Australia : Official Journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals·Samuel CornellRachael Dodd
Jun 17, 2021·Journal of Advanced Nursing·Adam Searby, Dianna Burr
Jul 29, 2021·Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health·Anton Pak, Oyelola A Adegboye
Jul 28, 2021·Health Economics, Policy, and Law·Anika Stobart, Stephen Duckett
Nov 3, 2021·Nature Communications·James M TrauerRomain Ragonnet

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