Deliberative disjunction: expert and public understanding of outcome uncertainty

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Robin GregoryMartin Tusler

Abstract

Many environmental and risk management decisions are made jointly by technical experts and members of the public. Frequently, their task is to select from among management alternatives whose outcomes are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Although it is recognized that how this uncertainty is interpreted can significantly affect decision-making processes and choices, little research has examined similarities and differences between expert and public understandings of uncertainty. We present results from a web-based survey that directly compares expert and lay interpretations and understandings of different expressions of uncertainty in the context of evaluating the consequences of proposed environmental management actions. Participants responded to two hypothetical but realistic scenarios involving trade-offs between environmental and other objectives and were asked a series of questions about their comprehension of the uncertainty information, their preferred choice among the alternatives, and the associated difficulty and amount of effort. Results demonstrate that experts and laypersons tend to use presentations of numerical ranges and evaluative labels differently; interestingly, the observed differences between the ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jan 6, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Robin GregoryAriel Hasell
Sep 22, 2015·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Robyn S WilsonDebra P C Peters
Mar 27, 2015·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Nathan F DieckmannRobin Gregory
Jan 10, 2018·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Grant G ThompsonTracey J Regan
Mar 23, 2019·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Alice C Hughes
Nov 23, 2019·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Robin GregoryDavid R Boyd
Feb 6, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·P Marijn Poortvliet, Anne Marike Lokhorst
Jan 18, 2017·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Robin Gregory, Ralph L Keeney
Jun 10, 2017·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Baruch FischhoffRoxane Cohen Silver
Aug 28, 2020·Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition·Beatrice J BirgenJoshua O Owade

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