Dengue Cases in Colombia: Mathematical Forecasts for 2018-2022.

MEDICC Review
Luis Eduardo López-MontenegroGermán Arturo Marcillo-Hernández

Abstract

INTRODUCTION Dengue is a disease caused by any one of five virus serotypes and transmitted to humans by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Climate change and health conditions have combined to make dengue a global public health problem. The situation is especially serious in Colombia, where by week 36 of 2018, dengue incidence was 96 cases per 100,000 population, with a total of 111 deaths. Different mathematical and statistical models have been proposed to understand the dynamics of transmission and consequently to apply control strategies to reduce the number of dengue cases. OBJECTIVE Forecast the number of dengue cases expected in Colombia from 2018 through 2022 with the stochastic Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and use the results to adjust the parameters of an ordinary differential equations model in order to determine the disease's basic reproduction number in the year presenting the highest number of dengue cases. METHODS An ecological time series study was conducted to forecast dengue incidence in Colombia from 2018 through 2022. The data were compiled from Colombia's National Health Institute series on dengue cases reported by epidemiological week from 2009 to 2017. The stochastic ARIMA time series m...Continue Reading

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