Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Leora R FeldsteinMichael A Johansson

Abstract

Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear. We randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having frequent outbreaks. Minimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature of greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4-16.6°C) were predicted to be suitable for DENV transmission. Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability. Predictions for 48 testing islands verified these findings. This analysis clarified two key components of DENV ecology: minimum temperature was the most important determinant of suitability; and endemicity was more likely in areas with high precipitation and large, but not necessarily dense, populations. Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects. This model adds to our knowledg...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 24, 2015·BMC Public Health·Thanh Le VietHeiman Fl Wertheim
Aug 28, 2015·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Rachel Lowe
Aug 27, 2016·Nature Microbiology·T Alex PerkinsAndrew J Tatem
Nov 2, 2017·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Felipe J Colón-GonzálezIain R Lake
Sep 28, 2018·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Mathieu BangertDonald S Shepard
Feb 12, 2020·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Jeomhee M HastyRyan R Hemme
Mar 1, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Sadie J RyanAnna M Stewart-Ibarra
Sep 3, 2020·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Michael R DesjardinsEric M Delmelle
Mar 30, 2021·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Ángel L Robles-FernándezAndrés Lira-Noriega

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