Derivation of a cardiac arrest prediction model using ward vital signs*.

Critical Care Medicine
Matthew M ChurpekDana P Edelson

Abstract

Rapid response team activation criteria were created using expert opinion and have demonstrated variable accuracy in previous studies. We developed a cardiac arrest risk triage score to predict cardiac arrest and compared it to the Modified Early Warning Score, a commonly cited rapid response team activation criterion. A retrospective cohort study. An academic medical center in the United States. All patients hospitalized from November 2008 to January 2011 who had documented ward vital signs were included in the study. These patients were divided into three cohorts: patients who suffered a cardiac arrest on the wards, patients who had a ward to intensive care unit transfer, and patients who had neither of these outcomes (controls). None. Ward vital signs from admission until discharge, intensive care unit transfer, or ward cardiac arrest were extracted from the medical record. Multivariate logistic regression was used to predict cardiac arrest, and the cardiac arrest risk triage score was calculated using the regression coefficients. The model was validated by comparing its accuracy for detecting intensive care unit transfer to the Modified Early Warning Score. Each patient's maximum score prior to cardiac arrest, intensive car...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 5, 2014·American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine·Matthew M ChurpekDana P Edelson
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