Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data

Global Change Biology
Brendan M RogersScott J Goetz

Abstract

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial reso...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 16, 2019·Global Change Biology·William R L AndereggCho-Ying Huang
Sep 10, 2020·Nature Communications·R J W BrienenE Gloor
Jun 20, 2020·Science·William R L AndereggJames T Randerson
Aug 21, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Xin LinGretchen Keppel-Aleks
Feb 5, 2019·Frontiers in Plant Science·Maxime CailleretJordi Martínez-Vilalta
Dec 18, 2020·Frontiers in Plant Science·Demissew Tesfaye TeshomeSanushka Naidoo
Jun 27, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Daniel Moreno-FernándezMariano García

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