Developing, cross-validating and applying regression models to predict the concentrations of faecal indicator organisms in coastal waters under different environmental scenarios

The Science of the Total Environment
Robson V de SouzaWalter Q Seiffert

Abstract

This study developed, cross-validated and applied a regression-based model to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) under different environmental conditions in the North and South bays of Santa Catarina, South of Brazil. The model was developed using a database of FIO concentrations in seawater sampled at 50 sites and the validation was performed using a different database by comparing 288 pairs of measured and modelled results for 15 sites. The index of agreement between the model outputs and the FIO concentrations measured during the validation period was 66%; the mean average error was 0.43 log10 and the root mean square error was 0.58 log10 MPN.100mL-1. These validation results indicate that the model provides a fair representation of the FIO contamination in the bays for the meteorological conditions under which the model was trained. The simulation of different scenarios showed that under typical levels of resident human population in the catchments and median rainfall and solar radiation conditions, the median FIO concentration in the bays is 0.4 MPN.100mL-1. Under extreme meteorological conditions, the combined effect of high rainfall and low solar radiation increased FIO concentrations up to 5 log...Continue Reading

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