Development and Calibration of a Mathematical Model of Anal Carcinogenesis for High-Risk HIV-Infected Men

Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS
Emily A BurgerJane J Kim

Abstract

Men who have sex with men who are living with HIV are at highest risk for anal cancer. Our objective was to use empirical data to develop a comprehensive disease simulation model that reflects the most current understanding of anal carcinogenesis, which is uniquely positioned to evaluate future anal cancer screening strategies and provide insight on the unobservable course of the disease. North America. The individual-based simulation model was calibrated leveraging primary data from empirical studies, such as a longitudinal HIV-positive men who have sex with men cohort study [Human Immunodeficiency and Papilloma Virus Research Group (HIPVIRG); n = 247] and the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design [(NA-ACCORD); n = 13,146]. We used the model to infer unobservable progression probabilities from high-grade precancer to invasive anal cancer by CD4 nadir and human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype. The calibrated model had good correspondence to data on genotype- and age-specific HPV prevalence; genotype frequency in precancer and cancer; and age- and nadir CD4-specific cancer incidence. The model-projected progression probabilities differed substantially by HPV genotype and nadir CD4 status. For example, amo...Continue Reading

References

May 29, 2007·American Journal of Epidemiology·Jane J KimSue J Goldie
Jan 19, 2008·Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology·Elizabeth Y ChiaoHashem B El-Serag
Jul 11, 2008·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Gypsyamber D'SouzaLisa P Jacobson
Dec 31, 2008·Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology·Thomas PowlesMark Bower
Feb 26, 2009·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Alexandra de PokomandyUNKNOWN HIPVIRG Study Group
Apr 28, 2009·Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics·L AbramowitzI Sobhani
Jul 21, 2009·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Roger J BedimoAmy C Justice
Aug 4, 2009·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Anil K ChaturvediEric A Engels
Nov 21, 2009·AIDS·Nancy F Crum-CianfloneUNKNOWN Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program HIV Working Group
Oct 13, 2010·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Nadia HowladerKathleen A Cronin
Dec 9, 2010·AIDS·Jonathan M C LamIrving E Salit
Mar 3, 2011·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Alexandra de PokomandyFrançois Coutlée
Jun 2, 2011·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Anouk KesselringFerdinand Wit
Sep 17, 2011·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Sara LodiUNKNOWN CASCADE Collaboration in EuroCoord
Feb 1, 2012·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Michael J SilverbergUNKNOWN North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) of IeDEA
Nov 13, 2012·PloS One·Hamish McManusUNKNOWN Australian HIV Observational Database
Jan 9, 2013·Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases·Rebecca LegarthNiels Obel
Aug 1, 2013·American Journal of Epidemiology·Barbara BertischUNKNOWN Swiss HIV Cohort Study Investigators
Aug 13, 2013·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·J Michael BerryJoel M Palefsky
Aug 24, 2013·International Journal of STD & AIDS·T R H ReadC K Fairley
Oct 11, 2013·BMC Public Health·Dorothy A MachalekUNKNOWN SPANC Study Team
Dec 25, 2013·PloS One·Hasina SamjiUNKNOWN North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) of IeDEA
Jun 18, 2014·AIDS Patient Care and STDs·Jessica S WellsDeborah Watkins Bruner
Aug 2, 2014·American Journal of Epidemiology·Nicole G CamposJane J Kim
Feb 18, 2015·AIDS·Katrina C DuncanNatasha M Press
Feb 26, 2015·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Julia L MarcusMichael J Silverberg
Jul 15, 2015·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Olivier RichelJan M Prins
Oct 6, 2015·Annals of Internal Medicine·Michael J SilverbergUNKNOWN North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AID
Mar 31, 2016·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Julia L MarcusMichael J Silverberg

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jul 9, 2020·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Theresa RyckmanJeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

HIV/AIDS-Related Malignancies

HIV/AIDS infection increases the risk of non-communicable diseases common in the aged including HIV/AIDS-related malignancies. Discover the latest research in HIV/AIDS-related malignancies.

AIDS Malignancies (ASM)

HIV infection increases the risk of non-communicable diseases common in the aged, including cardiovascular disease, neurocognitive decline, non-aids malignancies, osteoporosis, and frailty. Discover the latest research in AIDS malignancies.