Development and External Validation of an Early Prognostic Model for Survivors of Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest

Revista Española De Cardiología
Alberto Pérez-CastellanosFrancisco Fernández-Avilés

Abstract

Despite therapeutic hypothermia, unconscious survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest have a high risk of death or poor neurologic function. Our objective was to assess the usefulness of the variables obtained in the early moments after resuscitation in the prediction of 6-month prognosis. A multicenter study was performed in 3 intensive cardiac care units. The analysis was done in 153 consecutive survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest who underwent targeted temperature management between January 2007 and July 2015. Significant neurological sequelae at 6 months were considered to be present in patients with Cerebral Performance Categories Scale > 2. An external validation was performed with data from 91 patients admitted to a third hospital in the same time interval. Among the 244 analyzed patients (median age, 60 years; 77.1% male; 50.0% in the context of acute myocardial ischemia), 107 patients (43.8%) survived with good neurological status at 6 months. The prediction model included 5 variables (Shockable rhythm, Age, Lactate levels, Time Elapsed to return of spontaneous circulation, and Diabetes - SALTED) and provided an area under the curve of 0.90 (95%CI, 0.85-0.95). When external validation was performed, the pred...Continue Reading

Citations

Aug 14, 2020·Journal of the American Heart Association·Richard T CarrickDavid M Kent

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