Development and validation of a risk-prediction algorithm for the recurrence of panic disorder
Abstract
To develop and validate a risk prediction algorithm for the recurrence of panic disorder. Three-year longitudinal data were taken from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (2001/2002-2004/2005). One thousand six hundred and eighty one participants with a lifetime panic disorder and who had not had panic attacks for at least 2 months at baseline were included. The development cohort included 949 participants; 732 from different census regions were in the validation cohort. Recurrence of panic disorder over the follow-up period was assessed using the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule, based on the DSM-IV criteria. Logistic regression was used for deriving the algorithm. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the development and the validation cohorts. The developed algorithm consisted of 11 predictors: age, sex, panic disorder in the past 12 months, nicotine dependence, rapid heartbeat/tachycardia, taking medication for panic attacks, feelings of choking and persistent worry about having another panic attack, two personality traits, and childhood trauma. The algorithm had good discriminative power (C statistic = 0.7863, 95% CI: 0.7487, 0.8240). The C statis...Continue Reading
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