Development and Validation of Lifestyle-Based Models to Predict Incidence of the Most Common Potentially Preventable Cancers

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology
J A Usher-SmithS J Griffin

Abstract

Most risk models for cancer are either specific to individual cancers or include complex or predominantly non-modifiable risk factors. We developed lifestyle-based models for the five cancers for which the most cases are potentially preventable through lifestyle change in the UK (lung, colorectal, bladder, kidney, and esophageal for men and breast, lung, colorectal, endometrial, and kidney for women). We selected lifestyle risk factors from the European Code against Cancer and obtained estimates of relative risks from meta-analyses of observational studies. We used mean values for risk factors from nationally representative samples and mean 10-year estimated absolute risks from routinely available sources. We then assessed the performance of the models in 23,768 participants in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort who had no history of the five selected cancers at baseline. In men, the combined risk model showed good discrimination [AUC, 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-0.73] and calibration. Discrimination was lower in women (AUC, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.57-0.61), but calibration was good. In both sexes, the individual models for lung cancer had the highest AUCs (0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85 for men and 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.87 for women). The l...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 30, 2020·Nature Reviews. Urology·Juliet Usher-SmithGrant D Stewart
Dec 19, 2020·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Rosie K SingletonDavid C Muller
Jul 19, 2020·European Urology Focus·Hannah HarrisonJuliet A Usher-Smith

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