Development of an automated model to predict the risk of elderly emergency medical admissions within a month following an index hospital visit: a Hong Kong experience

Health Informatics Journal
Eva TsuiPeggo Lam

Abstract

To develop an automated risk prediction model to identify elderly patients at high risk of emergency admission to medical wards within 28 days following an index hospital visit. A retrospective data analysis of 41 hospitals and 48 specialist outpatient clinics in Hong Kong. The study subjects were elderly patients aged 65 years or above, who had index hospital visit(s) in the year of 2005, which included hospitalizations at medical wards and attendances at the accident and emergency departments or specialist outpatient clinics for medical conditions. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of emergency medical admission in 28 days after an index hospital visit. Model validation was performed against the complete cohort in 2006. Over a million of episodes were included in the derivation cohort. A total of 14 predictor variables included patient socio-demographics, service utilization in the previous year, presence and number of chronic diseases and type of index episode. The model has a good discriminative ability with the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve at 0.819 and 0.824 for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model has a sensitivity of 70.3 per cent, specificity of 78...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 13, 2016·Endocrine Practice : Official Journal of the American College of Endocrinology and the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists·Elena Barengolts
Jan 23, 2020·Journal of General Internal Medicine·Tristan StrujaPhilipp Schuetz
May 8, 2018·NPJ Digital Medicine·Alvin RajkomarJeffrey Dean
Dec 4, 2020·Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice·Paul FroomJochanan Benbassat
May 19, 2021·Quality of Life Research : an International Journal of Quality of Life Aspects of Treatment, Care and Rehabilitation·Tristan StrujaTimo Siepmann
May 20, 2021·Applied Clinical Informatics·Christine Xia WuChi Hong Hwang
Aug 5, 2021·BMJ Open·Lisa Grossman LiuHojjat Salmasian
Oct 19, 2021·Journal of Nursing Management·Natalie Flaks-ManovEinav Srulovici

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