Discerning effects of warming, sea level rise and nutrient management on long-term hypoxia trends in Chesapeake Bay

The Science of the Total Environment
Wenfei NiJeremy M Testa

Abstract

Analyses of dissolved oxygen concentration in Chesapeake Bay over the past three decades suggested seasonally-dependent changes in hypoxic volume and an earlier end of hypoxic conditions. While these studies hypothesized and evaluated multiple potential driving mechanisms, quantitative evidence for the relative effects of various drivers has yet to be presented. In this study, a coupled physical-biogeochemical model was used to conduct hindcast simulations between 1985 and 2016. Additional numerical experiments, in which the long-term trends in external drivers were removed, were analyzed to discern the separate effects of temperature increase, sea level rise and nutrient reduction. After the removal of seasonal and interannual variations, dissolved oxygen concentration in all regions of the estuary showed a statistically significant declining trend: ~0.1 mg/L per decade. Most of this decline occurred during winter and spring while May-August hypoxic volumes showed no changes and September hypoxic volume showed a slight decrease (~0.9 km3). Our simulations show that warming was the dominant driver of the long-term oxygen decline, overwhelming the effects of sea level rise and modest oxygen increases associated with nutrient red...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 20, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Fan ZhangSo Hyun Sophia Ahn
Jan 6, 2021·Environmental Science & Technology·Michael M Whitney, Penny Vlahos
Jan 3, 2022·The Science of the Total Environment·Luke T FrankelGary W Shenk

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