Abstract
In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) and 69th World Health Assembly approved the first global health sector strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis with the goal to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections worldwide. The aim is a 90% reduction of new infections and 65% reduction of HCV-related deaths by 2030. This study reports on the epidemiology of HCV infections in the Austrian state of Tyrol (total population 750,000) and uses a predictive model to identify how the WHO strategy for elimination of HCV can be achieved. We developed a regional disease burden model based on observed local diagnosis data from 2001 to 2016. Scenarios were developed to evaluate the impact of diagnosis and treatment on HCV-related outcomes (viremic prevalence, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths) from 2015 through 2030. In the last 15 years, 1,721 patients living in Tyrol have been diagnosed with chronic HCV infection. When ageing, mortality and treatment were factored in, there were an estimated 2,043 viremic HCV infections in 2016, of which 1,136 cases had been diagnosed. A baseline model predicts a decrease of 588 HCV cases from 2015 to 2030, which would not translate into the significant reduction ...Continue Reading
References
Jun 12, 2003·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·J-C Desenclos
Jun 12, 2003·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·R StraussC Pfeifer
Mar 4, 2010·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·A MaieronH Mittermayer
Mar 21, 2013·The American Journal of Gastroenterology·Dawn M SearsJuhee Song
May 30, 2013·Epidemiology and Infection·V D HopeM C Donoghoe
Jun 6, 2013·The American Journal of Gastroenterology·Dawn M Torres, Stephen A Harrison
Apr 10, 2014·Journal of Viral Hepatitis·H RazaviC Estes
Jan 7, 2015·Journal of Viral Hepatitis·E GaneC Estes
Jan 14, 2016·Hepatology International·Mattias MandorferMarkus Peck-Radosavljevic
Aug 6, 2016·Epidemiology and Infection·A I SoipeB D L Marshall
Apr 12, 2017·The Lancet. Gastroenterology & Hepatology·UNKNOWN European Union HCV Collaborators
Apr 14, 2017·The Lancet. Gastroenterology & Hepatology·UNKNOWN Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators
Aug 12, 2017·The International Journal on Drug Policy·Nick ScottMargaret E Hellard
Aug 23, 2017·The International Journal on Drug Policy·Charles W HelsperNiek J de Wit
Aug 24, 2017·Nature Reviews. Gastroenterology & Hepatology·Jason GrebelyGregory J Dore
Apr 14, 2018·Journal of Hepatology·UNKNOWN European Association for the Study of the Liver. Electronic address: easloffice@easloffice.eu, UNKNOWN European Association for the Study of the Liver