Do Different Methods for Modeling Age-Graded Trajectories Yield Consistent and Valid Results?

AJS; American Journal of Sociology
John R WarrenAlberto Palloni

Abstract

Data on age-sequenced trajectories of individuals' attributes are used for a growing number of research purposes. However, there is no consensus about which method to use to identify the number of discrete trajectories in a population or to assign individuals to a specific trajectory group. We modeled real and simulated trajectory data using "naïve" methods, optimal matching, grade of membership models, and three types of finite mixture models. We found that these methods produced inferences about the number of trajectories that frequently differ (1) from one another and (2) from the truth as represented by simulation parameters. We also found that they differed in the assignment of individuals to trajectory groups. In light of these findings, we argue that researchers should interpret results based on these methods cautiously, neither reifying point estimates about the number of trajectories nor treating individuals' trajectory group assignments as certain.

Citations

Nov 16, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Irinja LounassaloTuija H Tammelin
May 28, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Jatta SalmelaNoora Kanerva
Jun 8, 2018·International Journal of Epidemiology·Sharon GoldfeldFiona Mensah
Aug 4, 2020·Society and Mental Health·Amy Ruining Sun, Jason N Houle
May 20, 2016·Social Science Research·Andrew Halpern-Manners
Aug 28, 2020·Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics·Etienne Duim, Valéria Lima Passos
Aug 10, 2021·Sociological Methodology·Matthias Studer
Jun 29, 2021·The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences·Ignacio Madero-CabibJorge Browne Salas

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