Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

Quality & Quantity
Gizem Uzuner, Sudeshna Ghosh

Abstract

In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.

References

Jan 21, 2017·Health Policy and Planning·Jaume RossellóWaqas Awan
Oct 1, 2008·Tourism Management·Hsiao-I KuoBing-Wen Huang
Jan 1, 2010·Environmental Modelling & Software : with Environment Data News·Michael McAleerChia-Lin Chang
May 16, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Panayotis Christidis, Aris Christodoulou
May 28, 2020·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Gizem UzunerAndrew Adewale Alola
Aug 25, 2020·Annals of Tourism Research·Gokhan KarabulutAsli Cansin Doker

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