Does Size Matter to Models? Exploring the Effect of Herd Size on Outputs of a Herd-Level Disease Spread Simulator

Frontiers in Veterinary Science
Mary van AndelTim E Carpenter

Abstract

Disease spread modeling is widely used by veterinary authorities to predict the impact of emergency animal disease outbreaks in livestock and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different management interventions. Such models require knowledge of basic disease epidemiology as well as information about the population of animals at risk. Essential demographic information includes the production system, animal numbers, and their spatial locations yet many countries with significant livestock industries do not have publically available and accurate animal population information at the farm level that can be used in these models. The impact of inaccuracies in data on model outputs and the decisions based on these outputs is seldom discussed. In this analysis, we used the Australian Animal Disease model to simulate the spread of foot-and-mouth disease seeded into high-risk herds in six different farming regions in New Zealand. We used three different susceptible animal population datasets: (1) a gold standard dataset comprising known herd sizes, (2) a dataset where herd size was simulated from a beta-pert distribution for each herd production type, and (3) a dataset where herd size was simplified to the median herd size for each he...Continue Reading

References

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Sep 15, 2017·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Mary van AndelTim Carpenter

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Citations

Oct 9, 2019·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Sarah R Mielke, Rebecca Garabed
Sep 29, 2020·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Mary van AndelM Carolyn Gates
Jun 26, 2021·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Richard BradhurstKeith Sumption

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
AADIS

Software Mentioned

R
Interspread Plus
AsureQuality
AADIS

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