Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model

Journal of Environmental Management
William D Solecki, Charles Oliveri

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) C...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 17, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Britta G BierwagenPhilip Morefield
Apr 12, 2011·Journal of Environmental Management·Alexandra D SyphardMark McGinnis
Jul 24, 2007·Journal of Environmental Management·Ralph Mac Nally
Jul 13, 2004·Journal of Environmental Management·A Veldkamp, P H Verburg
Jan 12, 2019·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Asmat UllahGerrit Hoogenboom
Aug 28, 2021·Entropy·Dmitry V KovalevskyJürgen Scheffran
Jun 11, 2019··Gargi ChaudhuriSamantha Foley

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