Drawing inference from nationwide lockdown as a response towards novel Cornavirus-19 (CoVID-19) epidemic in India

Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care
Dinesh KumarSushant Sharma

Abstract

Lockdown effectively can only result in relative freezing of populations that is expected to slow down the disease spread rather than zeroing it. Flattening of epidemic curve Current analysis was carried out to observe a pattern in the rise of CoVID-19 cases along with concurrent announcements of strategies to control the spread of disease. Data in from of daily number of cases and issued notifications were studied from the official website of Government of India from 30/01/2020 to 03/05/2020. Qualitative assessment with thematic analysis was carried out for notifications issued by the government. The fit to data on cumulative cases was observed with R2 and checked for linearity, logarithmic, polynomial, and exponential growth. Daily growth fraction (Gt) was calculated based on the difference between current and previous number of cases, thereafter daily doubling time (Td(t)) was estimated. Daily reported cases were entered and cumulative growth of cases observed with a polynomial increasing pattern (third-order) with better fit (R2: 0.999). Total 108 notifications were issued, and as compared to phase-0 and 1 (87.0%), few (12.9%) notifications were issued in phase-2 of study period. As compared to phase-0 and 1, rising trend o...Continue Reading

References

Nov 5, 2011·Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health·Rajesh KumarP V M Lakshmi
Mar 16, 2017·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Hamish McCallumJoanne Lello
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Apr 22, 2020·Journal of Clinical Virology : the Official Publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology·Yong HuYancheng Xu
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Jun 5, 2020·Minerva gastroenterologica e dietologica·Giovanni CasellaAurelio Limonta

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