Nov 8, 2018

Dynamic modelling of hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs: A tool to support WHO elimination targets

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Theresa Julia Sophia StocksTom Britton

Abstract

To reach the WHO goal of hepatitis C elimination, it is essential to identify the number of people unaware of their hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the effect of interventions on the disease transmission dynamics. In developed countries, one of the primary routes of HCV transmission is via contaminated needles shared by people who inject drugs (PWIDs). However, substantial underreporting combined with high uncertainty regarding the size of this difficult to reach population, makes it challenging to estimate the core indicators recommended by the WHO. To help enable countries to monitor their progress towards the elimination goal, we present a novel multi-layered dynamic transmission model for HCV transmission within a PWIDs population. The model explicitly accounts for disease stage (acute and chronic), injection drug use status (active and former PWIDs), status of diagnosis (diagnosed and undiagnosed) and country of disease acquisition (domestic or abroad). First, based on this model, and using routine surveillance data, we estimate the number of undiagnosed PWIDs, the true incidence, the average time until diagnosis, the reproduction numbers and associated uncertainties. Second, we examine the impact of t...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Anatomical Layer
Needle Device
Reproduction
Hepatitis C
Persons
World Health Organization
Objective (Goal)
Kidney Failure, Chronic
Disease Transmission
Hepatitis C virus

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